Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized strategic positions along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the crucial island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, dramatically escalating concerns over one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
The Houthis captured the port city of Mocha on Thursday before advancing toward other strategic locations along the coast. On Friday, Yemeni government sources said the group had reached Perim Island, which sits directly in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Reuters also reported that Houthi forces reached the mainland town of Dhubab, which lies opposite Perim.
The developments have raised fears that the Houthis could gain greater control over the maritime chokepoint and potentially disrupt international shipping and energy supplies.
Why Perim Island matters
Perim, also known as Mayyun, occupies a highly strategic position in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The narrow waterway separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea and serves as the southern gateway to the Suez Canal. Ships travelling between Asia and Europe frequently use the route.
At its narrowest point, the Bab al-Mandeb is only about 29 kilometres wide, with the island of Perim dividing the waterway into two channels.
Around 7% of global oil output passes through the strait, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Any major disruption could therefore have consequences far beyond Yemen.
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Mocha falls to the Houthis
The latest offensive gathered momentum when Houthi forces captured Mocha, a historic Red Sea port city that had been held by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces.
The seizure strengthened the Houthis’ position along the western coastline and placed them closer to the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint.
Reuters reported that the offensive has involved significant Iranian support, with Yemeni, Iranian and regional sources saying Iran’s Revolutionary Guards provided weapons, funding and strategic guidance.
Iran has denied directly directing Houthi military operations and says the group is an ally rather than an Iranian proxy.
A new threat to global shipping?
The biggest concern is what could happen if the Houthis establish effective control over the Bab al-Mandeb.
The waterway is a major trade corridor connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Ships travelling from Asia to Europe can use the route to reach the Suez Canal rather than sailing around Africa.
If shipping becomes unsafe, vessels could once again be forced to take the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.
That would add weeks to some journeys and increase fuel, insurance and freight costs.
The consequences could also be felt in energy markets. Reuters reported that global oil prices have already risen above $100 a barrel amid wider disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict and instability around the region.
Saudi Arabia faces another problem
The development is particularly significant for Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom has increasingly relied on Red Sea routes to move oil after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
A Houthi threat to the Bab al-Mandeb could therefore put another major export route under pressure.
Reuters reported that Saudi crude production fell sharply in August, while attacks linked to the Yemen conflict have affected shipping through the Red Sea.
There are also concerns about Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, which allows the kingdom to move crude from its eastern oil fields toward the Red Sea.
Could the conflict widen?
The latest Houthi advance comes as the wider war between the United States and Iran continues to escalate.
The Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to threaten shipping in the Red Sea, and their latest territorial gains could give them a stronger position from which to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies.
The situation also creates a difficult choice for Washington.
Direct U.S. military intervention against the Houthis could open another front in an already expanding regional war.
But allowing the Houthis to consolidate control over strategically important parts of the Red Sea coast could create a serious long-term threat to international shipping.
Reuters reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged President Donald Trump to launch strikes against the Houthis, but Trump rejected the request, according to Axios reports cited by Reuters.
Yemen’s humanitarian crisis
Beyond oil and shipping, the escalation threatens to make an already devastating humanitarian crisis even worse.
Yemen has endured years of war, economic collapse and humanitarian suffering.
The 2022 truce significantly reduced major fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed forces, but tensions never completely disappeared.
The latest offensive marks a significant escalation and could push Yemen back toward a much wider conflict.
Yemeni government forces have already indicated that they intend to launch a counter-offensive to retake areas seized by the Houthis along the Red Sea coast.
What happens next?
The capture of Mocha and the advance toward Perim and Dhubab could prove to be a major turning point in Yemen’s long-running conflict.
For the Houthis, control of strategic coastal positions could strengthen their military position and give them greater leverage over one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors.
For Saudi Arabia and its allies, the challenge is how to respond without triggering an even wider regional war.
And for the rest of the world, the biggest concern is whether the Bab al-Mandeb will remain open and safe for commercial vessels.
The Houthis have said their maritime actions are directed at Saudi-linked shipping rather than international navigation. But with the group now positioned near one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, global shipping companies and energy markets are watching the situation closely.
The question now is whether the Houthis will consolidate their gains or whether Saudi-backed forces and their allies will launch a major counter-offensive to push them back.
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