Trump’s Iran War Risks Becoming a New ‘Forever War’ as 9/11 Anniversary Nears

When Donald Trump campaigned for a second term in the White House, he promised to be a “president of peace” who would avoid foreign wars and focus on America’s domestic interests.

Six months into his war with Iran, however, the U.S. president is facing comparisons with the prolonged conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq that followed the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

With the 25th anniversary of 9/11 approaching, analysts and foreign-policy experts are questioning whether Washington is repeating some of the mistakes of the post-9/11 era.

The comparisons come as Trump’s campaign against Iran continues without a clear endgame. Reuters reports that the conflict has involved air and naval operations, sanctions and a maritime blockade, while Iran has continued to resist pressure from Washington.

Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy said Trump had broken with a post-Iraq and Afghanistan reluctance in Washington to launch another major, open-ended Middle East war.

He warned that Trump’s successor could inherit an entrenched confrontation between the United States and Iran.

Trump’s war is different — but still prolonged

Trump administration officials reject comparisons between the Iran conflict and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The earlier conflicts involved the removal of hostile governments, large deployments of American ground troops and attempts to occupy territory and establish new political systems.

The Iran war has relied much more heavily on air and naval power.

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Those operations have inflicted significant military and economic damage on Iran, according to U.S. officials, but they have not forced Tehran’s leadership from power or achieved Trump’s initial hopes of prompting Iranians to overthrow their government.

Instead, the conflict has developed into a prolonged confrontation involving repeated attacks and counterattacks.

The uncertainty has raised concerns that the war could continue beyond the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz

One of the most immediate consequences has been the impact on global energy markets.

Iran’s disruption of oil shipments through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has contributed to rising fuel prices. Reuters reported that Brent crude recently climbed above $100 a barrel as the conflict intensified. 

The disruption is also putting pressure on American consumers and creating a political problem for Trump ahead of the midterm elections.

The conflict has already damaged Washington’s international standing, while relations with some traditional U.S. partners have become increasingly strained.

Are the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan being ignored?

Critics argue that the central lessons of America’s post-9/11 wars have not been fully absorbed.

The September 11 attacks killed nearly 3,000 people and triggered the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, where al Qaeda leaders were based.

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Two years later, the Bush administration invaded Iraq after claiming Saddam Hussein’s government possessed weapons of mass destruction. Those claims were later discredited.

The wars placed enormous pressure on the U.S. military and contributed to instability across the Middle East.

The eventual public backlash against America’s long military engagements helped create an environment in which Trump was able to campaign against what he described as unnecessary foreign intervention.

Yet analysts now argue that the Iran conflict risks producing some of the same problems.

Iran has shown resilience

Trump initially appeared to expect a relatively quick victory.

Instead, Iran has continued fighting despite the intense American military and economic pressure.

Analysts say Washington may have underestimated Tehran’s ability to withstand attacks and disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s ability to threaten one of the world’s most important oil routes has added another dangerous dimension to the conflict.

The situation has also produced regional consequences.

Iranian retaliation has affected U.S. allies in the Gulf, while neighboring countries have increasingly sought ways to prevent the conflict from spreading.

The latest regional escalation has also involved Yemen, where Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized the port city of Mocha and moved closer to strategically important Red Sea shipping routes.

Limited international support

Another major difference between the Iran conflict and the early stages of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is the level of international support.

While the Bush administration initially secured substantial international backing after 9/11, Trump launched his Iran campaign with considerably less support from allies.

European and Asian governments have largely resisted calls to become directly involved.

The lack of broad international backing could make it more difficult for Washington to build a sustainable strategy for ending the conflict.

Political pressure grows

Trump’s Iran war is also becoming a political liability.

Unlike the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which initially enjoyed significant support from Americans, the Iran conflict has faced opposition from the beginning.

Reuters/Ipsos polling reported this week found that only about 25% of Americans supported the war with Iran. 

That opposition could become increasingly important as voters prepare to participate in November’s midterm elections.

The war has already contributed to concerns over oil prices, inflation and the broader economic outlook.

Supporters say Trump can still claim victory

Trump’s critics argue that the conflict is becoming another costly Middle Eastern war without a clear path to peace.

But his supporters strongly reject the “forever war” characterization.

Mark Dubowitz, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that Trump has not plunged the United States into an endless conflict and maintained that the administration has achieved important successes.

The Trump administration has also insisted that its campaign has weakened Iran’s economy and advanced U.S. objectives.

The central question, however, remains unresolved: How does the war end?

As America marks 25 years since 9/11, the comparison with the wars that followed that tragedy is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

For Trump, a president who promised to bring an end to America’s era of foreign military intervention, the possibility that Iran could become another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict presents a profound political and strategic challenge.